Bangladesh
politics can’t escape India question. It was always there. For a long
time, it can be assumed for obvious reasons, the issue will remain live
in the politics. No one, if the person or the factor means politics in
Bangladesh, owns any sense to ignore the issue.
History and geography, culture
and society, psyche and practice, and economy and interests have made
the question an important one in Bangladesh. All of these are entangled
while each one influences the others. One can’t deny the way history
shaped the related geographical and economic issues, the issues of
culture and society. And, culture covers practices, custom, ideas while
ideas are part of ideology, which is influenced by dominant interests.
The interests play with the ideological issue.
In all spheres, whether one
likes or not, people are central. But people are hoodwinked, confused,
pushed aside by dominant interests. However, whatever is done, people
remain the central. The acts – bamboozling and creating confusion,
excluding and making mum – are proof of people power as those “noble”
acts would not have been required if people were powerless.
People, silent at times under
certain circumstances and vocal at moments of historical juncture,
influence everything and everybody. None – dictators, comical characters
on socio-cultural-political stage, men with murderer’s “spirit”, shrewd
horse traders in political houses, insignificant persons in all
historical phases, powerful personalities doing and undoing a lot,
chatterers with their politically obnoxious words, man-slaughterers with
mundane mind, obedient political pied pipers seeking petty perks – have
the power to deny existence of people, most of whom are poor, most of
whom are working hands, most of whom live at the lower tier of the long
ladder of dramatically increasing inequality. This – the people – have a
central role on the issue, the India question.
The India question was played
like an ace by a part of Pakistan politicians, a band representing a
historically-immature ruling elites, since this part of the
sub-continent was turned a neo-colony in mid-August of 1947. The issue
was virtually turned into one of the pillars of the ideology the state
was selling to survive.
But that political-caricature
collapsed. The 1971, the period of our Great War for Liberation, saw a
tide opposite to the politics the Pakistan rulers strove to create.
Actions of brutal “heroism” and “purification” that began on the
midnight of March 25, 1971 in Bangladesh created an opposite reaction,
which was more than an exact. An episode concluded.
And, India appeared as an ally
to the people searching a survival-ground in the face of beastly
aggression on the Bangladesh people’s peaceful life and land. Actions of
the Pakistan ruling elites accelerated the job. In those days of our
War for Liberation, tales of Pak army’s “bravery” in the Sialkot and
Khemkaran sectors during the 1965 Indo-Pak war stood as skeletons. The
undaunted Bangladesh people were writing an epic of their courage, pain
and supreme sacrifice. India, depending on wishes of none, got a place
in the hearts of millions. It was not only the ruling elites of India,
the ordinary citizens, the persons on streets in the country were
extending care and love within their capacity. Sources, or reasons of
the two, of the ruling elites and of the commoners, were different. But a
factor was emerging deep in the Bangladesh mass psyche while the
neo-colonial Pak rulers failed to perceive the contradictions. The Pak
rulers resorted to a military machination of a political problem. It was
their limit. It was impossible for them to act in a different way at
that junction of history. Failure to perceive that limit is a failure in
studying society with its class content. It’s equivalent to purchasing
or eliminating individuals with the hope of brushing out contradictions
between social classes as money or fire power can’t bury contradictions
within society.
The India question during the
days since the historic December 16, 1971 victory of the Bangladesh
people experienced high tide and ebb. Facts and fictions, real and
fabricated stories, deals and diplomacies, water withdrawals and
sharing, border-killings and border bazaars, gradually increasing trade
and decreasing protectionist measures, Bangladesh ordinary person’s
educational and medical requirements, and, most important of all,
capitalist alliance between part of capitals in Bangladesh and India
played role in shaping the issue. Factions within the dominant part of
gradually growing up Bangladesh capital were also reckoning the issue:
Where lies the better interest?
Geopolitics joined those.
Aspects of geostrategy and geotactics obviously are not absent. Naked
imperialism, outright imperialist acts of intervention, spread its
Eagle-wings over the sky of all the continents, especially
Asia-Africa-Latin America. The world now bears signs of dwindling
influence of an old imperialist power. The phenomenon has coupled with a
few other phenomena: increasing global competition, emerging economic
powers and trade blocks, advancements achieved in the initiative to
replace the old world-money – the US Dollar, new theaters of military
mobilization, the Pacific-Indian Oceans are one of those, maze-like
equations simultaneously taking shape in regions. The increasing
military competition doesn’t recede with the change in terminology:
“Pivot to” or “Rebalancing to” Asia. A few of these equations are yet to
take full shape.
This perspective now compels all
to recognize the fact: Bangladesh is strategically important.
Bangladesh is a basket case, a Kissingerspeak, is now only a “gem” in
the rugged modern political-history, a show of a lack of political
far-sightedness of political scholars from a particular school. It’s the
Bangladesh people that demolished the political assessment made
immediately-after Bangladesh emerged victorious in one of its phases of
struggle towards liberation. That – basket case – was Kissinger’s
assessment. That Bangladesh was war ravaged, victim of scorched-earth,
literally, policy of the occupying Pakistan military. Relevant
commission report of Pakistan tells a part of the fact.
But the Bangladesh people busted the propagated myth – a hopeless people, an idle people, a dumb people, a worthless people.
All these, the history, the
present perspective and the people, make the India question an urgent
reality, a reality all in Bangladesh politics, trade and finance have to
deal with. These, the circles in economy and politics, will define the
rest. And, the residue, whatever will be left there, will turn
insignificant.
Expecting an overnight change of
policy of a state, especially of a state like India, is nothing but an
exercise in utopia, or a child-like perception of state machine. A state
commanded by a ruling class matured over centuries through economic and
political struggles, and having command over a huge capital that passed
its days of infancy long ago doesn’t change policy overnight other than
a dramatic life-and-death issue. Similar change, if any, is a sign of
decay within the ruling machine. Even, management or procurement plan of
a single manufacturing plant owned by a group of matured capitalists is
not changed overnight.
An election result doesn’t make a
fundamental change in policy of a matured state if the class commanding
the state doesn’t face crisis within. A dramatic change in state policy
is found in states yet to get organized as a state with essential
institutions for dominance. Banking on election result within a matured
class is an utter failure in perception of politics and state craft, and
a self-reflection on mirror, an image of self-immaturity. Encountering
the India question, whether pro- or anti- , requires the lesson.
Very naturally, a political
organization’s abrupt policy shift shows not only its heart, but also
its brain. It shows many aspects: (1) a long, vigorous, intensive
exercise with policy; or (2) an exigency; or (3) a desperate situation;
or (4) attempt to abandon a few allies and court new friends. There are
other aspects also. Meanings – interests – are there whatever of these
or all of these play as reason or cause of the shift.
Interests are first of all
related to economy, and that reaches class(es) or factions of one or
many classes. A shift thus impacts class- or faction-allies. Thus any
shift turns sensitive in politics with far-reaching impact. Pro- or
anti-India position in Bangladesh is thus related to domestic politics.
It’s not only a question of an
external ally or appeasing or befriending an external power for the sake
of political power. Its first consideration is allies or adversaries
within home. In simple term, it’s a cost-benefit analysis.
On the other hand, it’s a
strategic question, not a tactical move. To deal a strategic question in
a tactical style is the first condition of befooling self. The
befooling will be done for the second time if a tactician considers that
a matured state can be fooled by mere moves tactical in nature.
Turning pro- or anti-India has
some other issues to be solved. One of these is: Credibility, internally
and externally, will be lost if it ultimately turns out that the
position is not real and meaningful, but a simple opportunistic
vocalization.
Not fake, but a real position –
pro- or anti-Indian – signifies shift in interests of factions of
capital or classes involved. It’s a real show or an indicator in the
entire politics.
A sudden tact or quick policy
shift has the other side: the target of the shift – India. Does the
state take decisions within a short time-span? Is the machine involved
with policy formulation that immature? Are not elaborate exercises and
detail analyses done by institutions of the state over a long period? Is
memory of the machine so short that mere utterances can make it move in
another direction? Doesn’t the targeted state machine look at
connections of the tactician? Moreover, doesn’t maturity tell that an
abrupt shift is unreliable as today’s abrupt shift can abruptly make an
about turn tomorrow?
At least two recent
announcements by two Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders on India
are thus significant. They said: BNP is not anti-India, BNP was not
anti-India, BNP shall not be anti-India. It’s significant if it’s real.
It’s significant if it’s not real. It’s significant if it’s tactical.
It’s significant if it’s a tactical move to face a strategic issue. It
shows the inner-condition of the party, its relations with its
constituents, the interests it prefers to serve, and some other
conditions.
It’s thus a major question to
others, left and right, in the Bangladesh political arena also as still
the party – BNP – is considered one of the two major political parties.
Thus it turns out a foolish yearning as one leader claiming to be
people-oriented and left recently chided the party – BNP – for its
inactions on a number of political and social issues. An utter failure
in political learning with a theatrical posture!
