Eurozone is in turmoil.
Protests in different forms, from election verdict to marches, against
bankers are razing countries in Europe while an indefinite-Greece is
making euroscape scene blurred.
Bankers are uncertain with the Euro-situation as
they train the continent appearing sick. There is voters rejecting
bankers, there is near-unprecedented police protest questioning profit,
there is politics of people standing opposed to politics of bankers. It
is like a torch alighted with the Parthenon Marbles in Greece and being
relayed to Britain while the bankers yet don’t know the equation of
politics with debt and austerity. The Euro-financial crisis and
Euro-political problems are reacting with each other.
Peoples in France and Greece have rejected austerity
measures in national elections, local election in Italy has conveyed
the same message, Greece is nourishing its democracy in a political
deadlock, people including police in Britain have demonstrated opposing
austerity measures, Indignados are marching in Spain shadowed by banking
crisis, a government in the Netherlands has collapsed, financial
measures in Ireland and Portugal are being questioned, French economy is
ailing. This is the reality in the continent.
Each political move and whisper, peoples’ each
expression in Europe is making London’s FTSE 100 index, New York’s Dow
Jones Industrial Average, Germany’s blue chip DAX index, the Paris stock
market, the European EuroStoxx, Asian markets, Greece’s exchange jump
or dance or sleep. None of these likes the political developments in
France and Greece. Uncertainty dominates the continent.
Klaas Knot, governing council member of European
Central Bank, said the risk of a double dip recession had become reality
in Europe. De Nederlandsche Bank, the Dutch central bank, in its latest
semi-annual risk report on the Dutch financial sector has warned that
with an unresolved eurozone crisis Europe faces a lost decade: a longer
period of stagnation. Weak economic growth, lower consumer spending,
inadequate investment could create the scene. Countries in the periphery
are turning vulnerable with weak public finance and economic
performance, and frail banking sector. The Bank of France in its latest
economic forecasts has warned that the French economy is part-way
through a six-month period of stagnation.
Citing a poll, Bloomberg reported that 57% of its
1,253 investors, analysts and traders assumed that at least one country
will abandon the euro by year-end. However, a Reuters poll found 35 of
the polled 65 economists hoped that Greece will be in the euro at the
end of 2013.
But the Greek-eurozone situation is near-hopeless. Public and politics often nullify pundits.
Concern over the Greece stalemate has been expressed
by the Institute of International Finance. The IIF represented Greece’s
creditors in its debt deal. If Greece were to quit the euro, the IIF’s
members would be hit with huge losses. French bank BNP Paribas has
calculated the impact of a Greek exit on its economy: an assumed Greexit
would wipe out 20% of Greek GDP, push up inflation by 40-50%, and send
the country’s debt/GDP ratio jumping to over 200%. A Greexit would be
bluster to the Euro banking sector.
Now, it seems, Europe’s central bankers are
preparing for exit of Greece from the eurozone. German central bank
chief Jens Weidmann has warned: No new aid to Greece if bailout
commitments are not kept by Athens. The Irish central bank chief Patrick
Honohan doesn’t consider a Greexit would be fatal to the euro. EU
Economic and Monetary Commissioner Olli Rehn is confident: Europe is
“more resilient” to a possible Greexit.
Greece: People against creditors
Verdict of the Greek people suffering under
creditors’ command has been proclaimed in the last election: Reject the
arrangement of making bankers richer.
But, the mainstream politicians, mostly rejected by
the people, are united in opposing the people’s verdict: reject
creditors’ conditions – austerity. Under warnings from the IMF, the
German Chancellor and the European Commission these politicians are
exhausting their energy to form a coalition that would toe to the
creditors. The deadline is May 17. Karolos Papoulias, the Greek
president, is now striving to forge a coalition so that an immediate
election can be avoided. This exercise – overturn people’s verdict – is
the bourgeois democratic practice. Already three bigger parties – the
centre-right New Democracy, far-left bloc Syriza and socialist Pasok –
have failed to form a government.
A fresh poll, almost inevitable, is expected to be
held by June 17 at the latest. A second election would change the Greek
political dynamic that in turn would react in bankers’ headquarters.
Creditors in no phase of human history are concerned
with plight of common persons. Greece is losing 922 jobs a day. The
unemployment rate rose to 21.7% in February. In terms of number, it was
more than a million. In the 15-24 age group, the rate was a record high:
54%. In February 2010, it was 15.2%. This forms a mirror of
bailout-austerity measures imposed by creditors, and one of the central
issues shaping politics in the country.
The European Financial Stability Facility, the
€700bn bailout fund, has agreed to pay out the scheduled €5.2bn to
Greece. As part of the bailout deal more than half of it will
effectively be returned to the European central bank and other eurozone
central banks within a week. Athens also lacks cash for salaries. As
first installment, €4.2bn will be delivered and the fate of the rest
will actually be decided by political development in Greece, a warning
to the people: behave as the creditors command, otherwise, salaries and
wages will be withheld.
Creditor created panic is driving the actors in the
on-going political drama in Athens. But the people have defied the
EU-IMF lordship. Aleka Papariga, the Communist Party general secretary,
has called for new elections “to put an end to the mockery of” forming
coalitions. While reiterating her party’s position to stay out of any
government that might be formed she accused Syriza of irresponsibility
and of undergoing continuous mutations. She added: “Under a leftist
disguise it attempts to convince the people that workers and capitalists
can coexist and prosper.” Syriza avoids taking a clear stance on NATO
membership and major foreign policy issues, said Aleka. Adventurism
sometimes is a powerful attraction.
Coming days will intensify political turbulence in
Greece that will be nervously monitored in Brussels, and in eurozone
capitals.
France: Aspiration will be compromised
Compromise will be the political mantra of Francois
Hollande, the new socialist avatar of France. His jubilant supporters
around the Palace de la Bastille thought history was in the making as he
once declared the world of finance was his “real enemy”. But the
reality under capital’s command is different.
Hollande will make his promised visit to Berlin
within hours of his swearing-in for talks with Angela Merkel, the German
Chancellor. Merkel is ready to welcome the moderate socialist with
“open arms”. She said Franco-German cooperation was “essential for
Europe”. The French leader also perceives the reality. Bank interest
will enforce a compromise. Agenda of the Berlin meeting is nothing new:
the old eurozone crisis and reaffirmation of the Franco-German
partnership, which will flow along the undercurrent of competition.
Hollande adhering to status quo will turn Merkel’s
competitor-ally. His election promise was: renegotiate the eurozone’s
fiscal pact, the Merkel-Sarkozy brainchild. But the German leader is
stubborn: no re-opening of the pact. Hollande favors joint EU investment
in major projects while Merkel’s choice is structural adjustments to
labor markets and pensions. Hollande prefers boosting growth with more
funds to the European Investment Bank. Volition of the stronger economy
shall prevail.
However, bankers are going to consider the issue of growth along with their loved austerity. Voters have alerted the bankers.
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has
invited EU leaders to a special summit on growth this month. It will be
followed by a “growth pact” to be adopted at the EU summit in June.
Merkel and Hollande will join together. It’s not only a compromise of
the two leaders; it’s also a compromise with reality. It’s a lesson all
bosses everywhere decline to learn; but, reality isn’t obedient to
bosses’ dictates.
With the electoral promise to “change the destiny of
France” Hollande now faces an ailing economy in home: faltering growth,
coiling public debt, sick industries, record unemployment. The French
voters rejected rightist policies. It was their protest. The French
socialist’s electoral promises include creating 60,000 new jobs in
education, tax those earning over €1million euros a year with a 75%
rate. But he will have to encounter obstacles difficult to circumvent.
Britain: For public, not for profit
In England and Wales, police officers held one of
the biggest demonstrations in recent times. Their demand: halt cuts and
privatization of the service, and full industrial rights. There banners
proclaimed: “Police for public, not for profit”. Their number: More than
30,000, claimed the Police Federation. Family members also joined the
marchers.
Citing the participants, the British press said:
There is anger as the rank and file officers face cuts to their pay,
pensions and changes to their working conditions. A press report quoted
one detective constable: “Our problem is we don’t have a union, so this
march is the strongest action we can take. I think there are a lot of us
wanting full industrial rights, and the right to strike.”
The incident is significant as it shows the way
anger accumulates, fault line appears, expression gets organized, and
expression denies to getting subdued. It’s a process within society.
It’s not that Lenin was there, and he sent Bolshevik agitators there.
Rather, there is an incident, now exposed, of “love” and betrayal –
police officer infiltrating environment movement, etc. acting as falling
into love with activists and continuing with following phases,
provoking novice activists, then, betraying, and, then, getting exposed,
then, at last, finding himself abandoned by all his loved, and,
standing before a court of law. Elites and their lackeys in all lands
are incapable to learn from incidents of “love” and betrayal, incapable
to learn from struggle of the masses, which is not dependent on
individual’s wishes.
There in Britain the emerging issues are, as one
writes, mammoth wealth, the forgotten section of the society, “growing
gap”, “democratic deficit”, “the cabinet stands accused of being
divorced from normal people”, “fractures run deeper”, “the worsening
plight of swaths of our society [flying] under the national radar”,
eroding support for the homeless, victims of domestic violence, those
with mental health problems, the elderly and alone, children in broken
homes, “the spectre of a forgotten Britain becoming reality”. Serious
questions shall emerge if one adds the way a section of media played
with public mind by hacking telephones, by collaborating with powerful
politicians, the way it made money and propagated its ideology. A
careful scrutiny of the incident may impress upon that Lenin told very
little about shameless, corrupt bourgeois press. But the revolutionary
told brute facts now being confirmed by the incidents in Murdoch’s
empire.
These incidents are influencing the British society,
influencing the common people’s perception; but the bankers are
training their might for further plundering, for further cuts.
Spain: Indignados again
Indignados are again on the march. Their slogan: “We
need to take back all the wealth and redistribute it fairly”. They are
in tens of thousands. Scores of cities across Spain are holding protests
against politicians and bankers. It is one-year anniversary of the
movement.
There is government crack down on the protest.
Police is not going to tolerate encampments of the protesters. The time
period for protest has already been dictated by the authority. One
shouldn’t forget: It’s bourgeois democracy.
With youth unemployment at 50% in Spain the
movement’s call for social justice, wealth distribution, human rights
and peace is universal. Stop proposed budget cuts in health and
education is one of the major demands of the Indignados. The demand has
deeper root in the society. But, bankers and their political friends
decline to recognize the root.
People in Portugal, Italy, Belgium, Germany, the UK are also participating in the movement.
However, the Spanish elites have their agenda.
Promoting the collaboration between bankers, real estate lords and state
further Bankia, the country’s fourth largest bank, has partly been
nationalized. Most shares of Bankia were once sold to ordinary persons.
Now, the ordinary share holders face large losses. Spain’s banks have
already consumed about €16bn of public funds. Within the next few months
they will hopefully consume another €50bn. It’s bankers’ boon.
It’s not a footnote: Nazis in Greece
Near-economic-disaster, common persons’ desperate
condition, servitude by mainstream political leadership, sale out of
democratic principles, weakness in political education, are fuelling
rise of Nazis in Greek politics.
History tells capital, at times, needs help of
Nazis, and capital embraces the help. At times of crisis, capital takes
draconian steps. Nazis/fascists act as capital’s obedient tool to impose
these steps. The Nazis create an environment of fear. They threat press
as a step of muzzling down freedom of expression. At times, Nazis are
taken casually, are considered tactical ally, and are appeased, only to
get annihilated by the Nazis.
With 21 seats and 7% of the votes the Greek neo-Nazi
party Golden Dawn is now threatening journalists, demanding that
journalists should stand up when its leader enters a press conference,
wanting to seal Greek borders with landmines, and promising to “rid the
country of their stench” – immigrant workers. The neo-Nazi leader
Mihaloliakos praises Hitler while his followers use an ancient symbol
resembling the swastika as its logo, learn from books on Aryan
supremacy, and are linked to racist attacks on immigrants. Greek
journalist Xenia Kounalaki wrote that Greeks should ignore Golden Dawn.
She has been threatened: She should “watch her back”. The mayor of Nemea
Vangelis Andrianakos has also received threats from the Golden Dawn.
But, all these are not the concluding parts of the
incidents in the continent as capital there still occupies space for
manipulation. A lot of dramas still are to be staged there as
contradictions are yet to sharpen further.
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